Future population growth of Australia will be driven by immigration

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60% of Australia’s population increase is due to overseas migration. The remaining 40% is accounted for by natural increase which is the number of births minus the number of deaths.

However, experts now believe, that the above statements may be wrong if we view population growth over time. That is because the natural increase will also include children of immigrants. If these immigrants had not moved to Australia, their children and grandchildren would not have been born there. Hence, the base population of Australia would not have increased without overseas migration.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics just released its latest projections of population. The report projected Australia’s population growth till the year 2066. The report also compared Australia’s population growth with medium overseas migration and without overseas migration.

If there is zero overseas migration, Australia’s projected population in 2066 is 25.1 million. This is the exact number of Australia’s current population. With medium overseas migration, the population would be 17.5 million more than the current population.

This proves that 100% of the future population growth in Australia will be driven by immigration.

The population will be affected directly as migrants arrive in Australia. It will also be affected indirectly as migrants have children and later on grandchildren.

The Migrant Intake Australia Report of 2016 was published by the Productivity Commission, as per SBS. It clearly said that Australia’s immigration policy was its population policy. That was because, without overseas migration, there would be no population growth.

The statistics for Sydney and Melbourne are noteworthy too.

Melbourne’s population would only increase to 600,000 in 2066 if we assume:

  • Medium fertility
  • Interstate migrant movement
  • Mortality

If we assume medium migration, Melbourne would see 4.5 million less population.

If we assume zero migration, Sydney’s population would fall by 400,000.

Australia took almost 200 years to reach 17.5 million people. It took far lesser time to reach the 25 million mark. This clearly shows that population growth in Australia is directly related to immigration.

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